ASIA: IPPC admits glacier melt prediction error (26/01/10)
The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has admitted that a prediction suggesting that Himalayan glaciers might disappear by the year 2035 was ‘poorly substantiated’ and a lapse in standards.
The claim was made in the organisation’s 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, which warned that climate change was accelerating. One paragraph declared that the probability of the Himalayan glaciers ‘disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high’.
A statement from the IPPC says that this ‘refers to poorly substantiated rates of recession and date for the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers.’ It added that ‘in drafting the paragraph in question, the clear and well-established standards of evidence, required by the IPCC procedures, were not applied properly.’
It added: ‘This episode demonstrates that the quality of the assessment depends on absolute adherence to the IPCC standards, including thorough review of ‘the quality and validity of each source before incorporating results from the source in an IPCC report.’
The admission was made after the error was pointed out by leading glaciologists in a letter to the journal Science. The experts said that the mistakes originated with a WWF report that picked up a news report based on an unpublished study, a mistake exacerbated by the accidental inversion of the date 2350 to give the 2035 claim.
Lis Stedman
